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Examining Earthquake
Costs to Area
What is the value of a large
research university?
-- to its local community?
-- to the economic well-being of the state?
-- to the future of the nation?
These are some of the questions being asked in light of
the seismic risks facing the UC Berkeley campus. With the
support of a grant from the Federal Emergency Management
Agency, UC professors Mary Comerio, Vitelmo Bertero, and
John Quigley are examining the potential economic losses to
the campus, community, state, and to substantial federal
research investments if a major earthquake strikes the
Hayward Fault.
Using a range of possible scenarios from a moderate to
extremely severe seismic event, the researchers will develop
a model that other universities can use to estimate economic
impact, identify priorities, and broaden FEMA's existing
model for estimating loss.
Obviously, more is at risk than disruption of campus
operations. A major earthquake could threaten the economic
future of the city, region and state.
For example, the campus is the largest employer in
Alameda County and the City of Berkeley. The campus
purchases more goods and services from area vendors than
most other institutions. In addition, students, faculty,
staff and campus visitors spend in local restaurants, book
stores, shops and other places of business, generating not
only profits but also tax revenues for the city.
Growing industries, such as biotechnology and computer
software, locate in the Bay Area in large part because of
the research and graduates of UC and Stanford. If a major
'quake shut down the campus, programs and research might be
curtailed or relocated. And it might be decades before the
campus and region recovered.
In October, Chancellor Berdahl and campus administrators
will meet with university presidents from around the country
and FEMA director James Lee Witt in a campus-hosted seminar.
All of the universities represented face risks of natural
disasters, whether from hurricanes, earthquakes, floods or
fire. This meeting, and the research now underway at UC, is
intended to be a first step as universities work together
with FEMA to plan for, and minimize, the hazards facing
these campuses. 
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